{"id":29105,"date":"2026-08-29T18:55:15","date_gmt":"2026-08-29T16:55:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.ldh-france.org\/troyes-et-aube\/?p=29105"},"modified":"2026-08-29T18:55:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T16:55:16","slug":"pour-en-finir-avec-les-sondages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.ldh-france.org\/troyes-et-aube\/pour-en-finir-avec-les-sondages\/","title":{"rendered":"Pour en finir avec les sondages"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n



Alors que Marine Le Pen recule, selon Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Dabi, directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l\u2019institut de sondage IFOP <\/em>(\u00ab\u00a0Du jamais vu depuis 10 ans\u00a0! \u00bb – TFI \u2013 24h Pujadas, l\u2019info en questions<\/em> du 28\/08\/2026) la radio en ligne d\u2019extr\u00eame droite Sud Radio<\/em>, relay\u00e9e par BFM<\/em>, proclame le contraire, continuant sa d\u00e9sinformation\u00a0\u00e0 coups d\u2019estimations hasardeuses et d\u2019interpr\u00e9tations pour le moins mythomaniaques et schizophr\u00e8nes du m\u00eame IFOP<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
et ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



Est-il utile de rappeler que les principaux instituts de sondage sont d\u00e9tenus par Pierre-Edouard St\u00e9rin (qui d\u00e9tient Hexagone<\/em>, commanditaire d\u2019Opinion Way<\/em> et de l\u2019IFOP<\/em> \u2013 tiens donc), Bernard Arnault (qui d\u00e9tient Opinion Way<\/em>) et Vincent Bollor\u00e9 (qui d\u00e9tient Havas<\/em> et l\u2019institut CSA<\/em> ainsi que des parts dans le groupe am\u00e9ricain Harris Interactive<\/em>)\u00a0?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quant \u00e0 IPSOS<\/em>, il est d\u00e9tenu par une myriade de fonds institutionnels (tel BLackRoc<\/em>k, r\u00e9cemment soup\u00e7onn\u00e9 de vouloir imposer la retraite par capitalisation en France) et de fonds communs consacr\u00e9s aux \u00e9nergies fossiles ou \u00e0 la gestion d’importants portefeuilles de dettes d’\u00c9tats et d’entreprises). <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le propri\u00e9taire d\u2019Elabe<\/em> est l\u2019ancien PDG de CSA<\/em>. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cluster17<\/em>, partenaire de l’hebdomadaire\u00a0Le Point<\/em><\/strong>, se d\u00e9finit comme un \u00ab laboratoire d\u2019\u00e9tude de l\u2019opinion \u00bb,\u00a0<\/em>selon les termes de son\u00a0site internet<\/a>. Il a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9pingl\u00e9 en 2022 par la Commission des sondages pour sa fiabilit\u00e9 plut\u00f4t contest\u00e9e et des doutes sur la repr\u00e9sentativit\u00e9 des panels utilis\u00e9s. Il classe les Fran\u00e7ais en groupes id\u00e9ologiques (ses fameux clusters<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a vu les fiascos qu\u2019ont connu lesdits instituts de sondages \u00e0 l\u2019occasion des \u00e9lections municipales de mars 2026. Leurs publications au caract\u00e8re artificiel, frauduleux et nuisible s’apparentaient plut\u00f4t \u00e0 des fake news qu’\u00e0 des enqu\u00eates s\u00e9rieuses.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ils ont beau jeu de surfer sur la perte de confiance des Fran\u00e7aises et des Fran\u00e7ais envers les partis et l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif, sur leurs jugements tr\u00e8s n\u00e9gatifs du personnel politique, leur sentiment d\u2019improvisation permanent autant que sur leur besoin de services publics, de protection, de soin, leur envie de d\u00e9mocratie directe et participative.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n



Au lieu de proposer une photographie de l\u2019opinion, ils la produisent en fa\u00e7onnant l\u2019essentiel des enqu\u00eates qui rythment le d\u00e9bat public en France.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u00a0Au regard de la place occup\u00e9e par les sondages dans notre syst\u00e8me politique, il est crucial de renoncer \u00e0 cette course \u00e0 la baisse des co\u00fbts et d\u2019inventer collectivement un syst\u00e8me qui permette aux journalistes et aux sondeur\u00b7ses de jouer pleinement le r\u00f4le qu\u2019ils et elles entendent d\u00e9fendre dans le fonctionnement des d\u00e9mocraties : la production de donn\u00e9es rigoureuses, au service de la formation de citoyen\u00b7nes \u00e9clair\u00e9\u00b7es.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



A ce stade, il ne s\u2019agit plus d\u2019incomp\u00e9tence. Le jeu est truqu\u00e9 d\u2019avance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sur les 5000 \u00e0 10000 sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s chaque ann\u00e9e en France, 50% d’entre eux sont faux.<\/strong> Heureusement, seuls 20% d’entre eux sont rendus publics. Toutefois les 80% non publi\u00e9s sont utilis\u00e9s \u00e0 leur convenance par les diff\u00e9rentes institutions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



Pourquoi alors s\u2019\u00e9tonner que tous les partis ne soient pas propos\u00e9s aux choix des sond\u00e9s dans les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion \u00e0 vis\u00e9e politique\u00a0? Ce qui a le don d’\u00e9nerver un peu ceux qui sont \u00e9vinc\u00e9s.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n




N\u2019oublions pas que ces sondages d\u00e9signent avant tout les favoris… qui ne sont pas n\u00e9cessairement les vainqueurs.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



En vue de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027, nous allons \u00eatre matraqu\u00e9s de sondages. Quelle confiance accorder \u00e0 ces chiffres ? <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continuer \u00e0 pr\u00e9senter ces projections comme des r\u00e9sultats scientifiques et fiables, c\u2019est entretenir une \u00ab\u00a0confiance collective dans une erreur collective\u00a0\u00bb.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un chiffre n\u2019est pas un destin, c\u2019est une mesure\u00a0; et en d\u00e9mocratie, le destin n\u2019appartient qu\u2019au vote, une fois les hypoth\u00e8ses, les m\u00e9thodes, les estimations et les projections remises \u00e0 leur juste place.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



Le CNRS conclut une \u00e9tude sur la qualit\u00e9 des \u00e9tudes politiques ainsi\u00a0:\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0Enfin il\u00a0n\u2019y a pas de fatalit\u00e9 \u00e0 voir les enqu\u00eates politiques, m\u00eame\u00a0quand elles sont bien faites, d\u00e9menties par la r\u00e9alit\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



On sait fort bien que publier des sondages trop longtemps avant un scrutin a une valeur pr\u00e9dictive tr\u00e8s faible et, ce qui est plus grave, influence artificiellement le d\u00e9bat public.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Lire ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, le sondage n\u2019est d\u00e9cid\u00e9ment pas un bon outil pour comprendre la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n



En 2018, Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Micheau publiait <\/strong>La proph\u00e9tie \u00e9lectorale. Les sondages et le vote.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il nous amenait \u00e0 la conclusion que \u00ab\u00a0<\/strong>les sondages ont toujours raison, sauf dans les cas o\u00f9 ils se trompent\u2026<\/strong><\/em>\u00ab\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
Voir ici<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n



Une consultation de Mme Irma revient finalement moins cher pour le m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les sondages sont avant tout des outils de propagande.<\/strong> Ils n\u2019ont de valeur que pour les banquiers qui se basent dessus comme garanties pour accorder des pr\u00eats aux partis.<\/strong> Il se trompent et ils nous trompent.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le vote demeure au final la seule fa\u00e7on de s\u2019approcher au plus pr\u00e8s de l\u2019\u00e9tat de l\u2019opinion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n



<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n



RD<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alors que Marine Le Pen recule, selon Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Dabi, directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l\u2019institut de sondage IFOP (\u00ab\u00a0Du jamais vu depuis 10 ans\u00a0! \u00bb – TFI \u2013 24h Pujadas, l\u2019info en questions du 28\/08\/2026) la radio en ligne d\u2019extr\u00eame droite Sud Radio, relay\u00e9e par BFM, proclame le contraire, continuant sa d\u00e9sinformation\u00a0\u00e0 coups d\u2019estimations hasardeuses et d\u2019interpr\u00e9tations…
Lire la suite Pour en finir avec les sondages<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2,7528,20,3238,3767,8611,6517,5997,3519,1766,31,4998],"tags":[3207,8789,8787,419,4047,8788,4017,8797,8785,8792,8798,8795,6679,8791,873,8794,7591,5739,8786,8796],"class_list":["post-29105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actus_section","category-debat-public","category-democratie","category-desinformation","category-elections","category-extreme-droite-2","category-influenceurs","category-opinion","category-politique","category-propagande","category-societe","category-sondages","tag-bernard-arnault","tag-blackrock","tag-cluster17","tag-cnrs","tag-csa","tag-elabe","tag-elections","tag-frederic-dabi","tag-frederic-micheau","tag-harris-interactive","tag-havas","tag-hexagone-2","tag-ifop","tag-ipsos","tag-le-pen","tag-opinion-way","tag-pierre-edouard-sterin","tag-presidentielle-2027","tag-sondages","tag-vincent-bollore"],"yoast_head":"\nPour 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